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The race for Senate control is breaking spending records

The race for Senate control is breaking spending records

By MARC LEVY

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, the Rocky Mountains and the U.S. Southwest as the two major political parties portray their opponents’ candidates as extreme in the fight for control of the U.S Represent US Senate.

Three races alone — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — are expected to spend more than $1 billion through Nov. 5.

The race begins Ohio could break Senate election spending record. The race begins Montana will be considered the most expensive Senate race ever per vote. And as the game draws to a close, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a Republican stronghold where the party has new hopes of ousting the two-term conservative senator. Ted Cruza surprise that could help them protect their majority.

Republicans need to pick up two seats to achieve a surefire majority, and one of them – West Virginia – is all but in the bag for the GOP.

Other races are more volatile and less predictable.

For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in difficult states. Losses by incumbents could amount to extinction for Democrats who represent reliably Republican states.

The election will also test the strength of both parties in the election campaign Wisconsin, Michigan And Pennsylvaniathe key states vying for presidential elections, known as the “Blue Wall” because of their relatively reliable Democratic voting histories. Republican victories there would dramatically change the playing field in the Senate.

All told, data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact estimates more than $2.5 billion will be spent on advertising in Senate races this two-year campaign cycle, slightly more than in 2022.

That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania, and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million, or less than a tenth of the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate election of all time was the Democratic one John Ossoff ‘s victory in one Georgia competition According to the campaign finance monitoring organization, there was a runoff election in 2021 that was decided by the Senate Open secrets.

In general, campaign strategists are talking about a Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is polling ahead of his party’s Senate candidates in battleground Senate states, while Democratic candidates are ahead of their presidential candidate in those states, Kamala Harris.

That means there is a segment of voters who could vote for Trump but won’t support Republicans in the Senate races – or who could split their votes with Democratic Senate candidates.

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Such divisions were rare. In Maine, voters supported Democrats in 2020 Joe Biden for President and re-elected Republican Senator. SusanCollinsfor example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s major super PACs to spend until Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races, but also Nevada And Arizonawhere Republicans are encouraged by strong numbers to vote early.

Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in deep-red Montana, where Republicans Tim Sheehy is challenging the Democratic senator’s third term. Jon Tester. They’re also optimistic about reliably red Ohio, where Republicans are Bernie Moreno is challenging the Democratic senator’s third term. Sherrod Brown.

Torunn Sinclair, a spokesman for two Republican super PACs, said one – American Crossroads – is taking $2.8 million out of Montana, while the two are putting several million more into Pennsylvania.

There, Republicans David McCormick is trying to unseat the three-term Democratic senator. Bob Casey in a presidential race that both sides say is close.

McCormick, a former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, has pushed the message in two debates that Casey is “certain” to support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.

In recent days, Casey began running an ad in conservative areas touting his “greed inflation” legislation to crack down on price gouging. The ad says, “Casey stood up to Biden to protect fracking” and “sided with Trump on trade and tariffs.”

Republicans say Casey’s ad featuring Trump is similar to a television commercial the senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin airs, expressing the need for both Democrats to protect themselves from Harris’ vulnerability in their states.

“They’re hoping to poach enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.

Still, Casey ran a similar ad in the 2018 midterm elections when he won handily — although that ad didn’t mention Trump — while Casey’s campaign points out that he has long separated himself from Democrats by opposing free trade agreements and projects to generate energy from fossil fuels.

Democrats, meanwhile, say they are forcing contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Texas Nebraska. Displacing incumbent Republicans from one or both of those seats could give Democrats at least a 50-50 split in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.

In Texas, US Representative. Colin Allreda former professional football player, has proven adept at raising small donations in his challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Allred has outperformed every Senate candidate nationally except Tester and Brown.