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College football picks and predictions

College football picks and predictions

Welcome to November, when you should know what a team is. If you don’t, betting for or against them is worrisome.

Sports bettors and oddsmakers also know what a team is, but they often have difficulty adjusting quickly enough to the magnitude of a failed offense, an offense that is struggling due to a faulty schedule, or a change in course during the year .

Each of these will inspire my best bet for Week 10 College football pickswith two more plus-money touchdown props at the end because both of these quarterbacks have insisted on scoring when it counts this season.

We’re heading towards black, 19-21 and -0.93 y/y after last week’s 3-2 for +1.48 units. And we’re fine if we march slowly. Patience and appreciation, these are the keys in November.

College football predictions for Week 10

The selection took place on October 31st. Click on each selection to view the full analysis.

College football predictions for Week 10

Boise State Boise State -23.5 vs. San Diego State

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

What, did you have something better to do on Friday night than watch this? Boise State Broncos they suffocate San Diego State Aztecs in a blowout? Yes, this Friday night game was supposed to be one-sided, but it was also supposed to be profitable.

Broncos star running back and Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty was “held in check” last week, if you can call 128 yards and a game-winning touchdown on 33 carries “held in check.” But seriously, that was it. UNLV was the nation’s best ball carrier at 3.88 yards per attempt. His previous low this season was 7.0.

Jeanty will not hold back against San Diego State. Not against a defense that ranks 114th in the country in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush, pro cfb graphics at collegefootballinsiders.com. In particular, the Aztecs avoid explosive rushes, Jeanty’s favorite treat.

The real reason to bet on this collapse isn’t Jeanty. It is San Diego State’s offense. Aztecs head coach Sean Lewis has more work to do than expected given his 123rd EPA offensive line and an inability to produce quality performances.

Jeanty will give Boise State a leg up. He may not play the whole game if things go wrong. The saving grace of the bust will be San Diego State’s inability to establish good possession — the No. 117 team in the country did so 32.5% of the time — to even threaten backdoor coverage.

Let us know that this bet was also included in this week’s College Football 134, available on Tuesday nights on all your podcast platforms to give you added value at the start of the week.

For more CFB tips, check out the College Football 134 podcast

Join Douglas and co-host Andrew Caley on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the podcast Covers the YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below:

Clemson Clemson -10 vs. Louisville

Best odds: -110 at DraftKings

This has been said before, and it will be said again. As long as the world praises this Louisville Cardinals Offense and head coach Jeff Brohm must remember that the Cardinals are overly reliant on explosive passing plays.

Louisville has a top-notch offense. Don’t misunderstand this criticism. It’s just not as high quality as the world says it is. There’s a reason the Cardinals rank 75th in late-down success rate. When Louisville can’t play big games, it’s in trouble.

The Clemson Tigers are much more balanced offensively and almost secure in points. Since their season-opening loss to Georgia, the Tigers have easily averaged 48.5 points per game.

If Clemson breaks up some of Louisville’s passing plays early, the Tigers will build a lead. At this point, every Cardinals play will essentially be a late-down scenario.

Dabo Swinney is a head coach who has enough experience to then increase his pass rush while keeping his secondary intact, limiting any potential heroics from Tyler Shough.

Nebraska Nebraska -6.5 vs. UCLA

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

We as a college football society have not spent enough time pointing out how dire the situation is UCLA Bruins are this season. The Bruins upset Rutgers two weeks ago, ending a five-game losing streak and distracting the world from a 2-5 start to DeShaun Foster’s tenure.

We as a gaming society didn’t realize how bad UCLA was because the Bruins covered most of those games, now 4-3 overall and 4-1 in their last five games, but four of those five losses were still all by one Multiple possessions.

The fact that LSU was outscored 17-0 in the second half was hardly a sign of a strong team. Oregon simply didn’t want to extend its 28-10 halftime lead as the Ducks had bigger concerns this season. Penn State won the second half 13-8, all eight of UCLA’s points coming with 16 seconds left. These games were not competitive.

It’s time to recognize that and bask in it Nebraska Cornhuskers‘ Chance to reach its first bowl game in eight years. The Huskers will be seeking that glory at home, and the Bruins are too weak in all aspects of football to accomplish it within a touchdown.

Let’s make my mom proud and find something nice to say about UCLA. Um. I guess that’s why the advice for the second half of life was, “Then don’t say anything at all.”

Virginia Tech Virginia Tech -3.5 at Syracuse

Best odds: -115 on FanDuel

Virginia Tech Hokies Quarterback Kyren Drones began the season rushing 23 times in the first two games for 81 yards, an average of 3.5 yards per carry adjusted for sacks. Related: Virginia Tech went 1-1 overall in those games, 0-2 against the spread.

Then the Hokies coaching staff remembered what it had and let Drones loose. Instead of his runs getting stuck at the line of scrimmage, which often wasn’t planned, he found space to chase down first downs. Over the last six games, Drones has rushed just eight times per game, but he has gained 342 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry, again adjusting for sacks.

Revamping the offensive plan to highlight the Drones has given Virginia Tech a lead and is 5-1 ATS since then, the exception being against Rutgers back when the Knights were still somewhat healthy.

Since the move, the Hokies have conceded four of their team’s six overs overall, compared to 0-2 earlier in the season. Even accounting for the two under teams in the last six games, Virginia Tech’s offense has scored four more points per game than bookmakers roughly expected.

With the Hokies now facing a decidedly average defense, they should put up plenty of points to make up for this short gap.

Ohio State Will land Howard any time

Best odds: +195 on FanDuel

Note: This is for half a unit, as is the next bet which is quite similar.

Will Howard has scored five touchdowns in seven games this season. He now faces a strong defensive line and Ohio State has major concerns about its offensive line With starting left tackle Josh Simmons out for the season and his backup Zen Michalski injured last week at best and simply ineffective at worst.

This actually adds value to Howard scoring again. The Buckeyes can use a running back to gain an advantage as Howard pushes toward the goal line.

That prop probably still had value, but Ohio State’s offensive woes highlight Howard’s dual-threat ability.

Oregon Dillon Gabriel at any time for a touchdown

Best odds: +200 on FanDuel

Note: This is also a half unit.

Dillon Gabriel has scored in five of eight games this season. The three exceptions were all the furthest away from competitiveness. Against Idaho at the FCS level, Oregon’s offense may not have exploded, but no one ever worried. There was a similar vibe walking past UCLA. And a few Friday nights ago, Purdue proved to be the worst of those three opponents.

Every moment he feigns competitiveness, Gabriel has taken on some of the offensive goal work. Michigan may be bad this year, but a road trip to the Big House still represents a moment that feigns competitiveness.

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