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College football odds, picks for K-State at Houston and other Big 12 games in Week 10

College football odds, picks for K-State at Houston and other Big 12 games in Week 10

We were on track for an extremely profitable day of college football betting last week until Texas Tech jumped out to a big lead against TCU and blew our chances at a cash line bet on the Red Raiders.

Well, yes. You’ll never catch me complaining after a 4-1 performance.

Kansas and Missouri are out this week, but let’s see if we can still find winners.

K-State (-13.5) at Houston

Is it wrong for me to call this game The Letdown Bowl?

Kansas State has three emotional wins against Colorado, West Virginia and Kansas. The Wildcats are looking forward to coming here in their second idle week of the season, not going on the road and playing a mediocre team like Houston.

That could give the Cougars an advantage in this game. On the other hand, Houston also had a great success, as Willie Fritz’s team just pulled off an upset against Utah. Houston hasn’t performed well after winning this season. A week after beating Rice, it lost 34-0 in Cincinnati. And it lost 42-14 after beating TCU.

It won’t be a surprise if neither team looks outstanding at this point.

K-State has traditionally struggled to stay ahead as the away favorite under Chris Klieman. But that could change this week. This number feels a bit low. Houston isn’t known for its offense, and it could be difficult for the Cougars to keep up with the Wildcats, even if Avery Johnson and Co. get off to a slow start.

My favorite bets

Arizona State (-2.5) at Oklahoma State: It feels like a dream matchup for the Sun Devils. Arizona State loves running the ball with Cam Skattebo, who ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 848 rushing yards this season. Oklahoma State shouldn’t be able to stop him with a run defense that allows six yards per rush, a number that ranks last in the conference. Choose: Arizona State.

TCU (+2.5) at Baylor: Many gave up on the Bears too quickly when they started the season 2-4. In hindsight, losing competitive games against Colorado, BYU and Iowa State was not the sign of a bad team. Baylor has since dropped 59 points on Texas Tech and defeated Oklahoma State by double digits. Sawyer Robertson is a major upgrade at quarterback. I expect the good vibes in Waco to continue against a TCU team that just needed a miracle comeback to beat Texas Tech at home. Choose: Baylor.

Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan: The Ducks have had an impressive performance since their win over Ohio State. Oregon followed that win with blowout wins over traditional Big Ten opponents Purdue and Illinois. I expect another one-sided affair when the Ducks travel to Michigan. The Wolverines don’t have enough talent to challenge the No. 1 team in the country. Choose: Oregon.

Air Force (+21.5) at Army: Normally I would be quick to bet on the Air Force in this situation, but this doesn’t appear to be a typical game between military academies. Army destroys teams with its rushing attack and has reached that number in five of seven games this season. The Air Force is just bad. Navy beat the Falcons 34-7 earlier this year, and that game was played at Air Force. Things could easily get worse for them in the army. Choose: Army.

Navy (-11) at Rice: That’s right. I’m betting on two service academies this week. Let’s get weird! We successfully blanked the Midshipmen last week, but it’s time to support them again. Navy didn’t have enough talent to compete with Notre Dame. But it destroyed every other team on its schedule. Expect Navy to return to its dominant strength as it takes a step back in the class against Rice. Choose: Marine.

Last week: 4-1

Season: 28-17 (+9.5 units)

Angry Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh (+260) at SMU: Both teams still dream of a conference championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff. But only one of them will still have such great ambitions after this game. With so much at stake, I expect a close game in Dallas. That should benefit the Panthers, who are 3-0 in games decided by one point. SMU is also without tight end RJ Maryland and quarterback Kevin Jennings is questionable. That’s enough uncertainty for me to take a shot at the money line here with the Panthers. Choose: Pitt.

Season: 3-6 (-0.9 units)

Other lines worth considering

Florida (+16.5) vs. Georgia: The Gators have been quietly playing decent football lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out on top against the Bulldogs. Lean: Florida.

Arizona (+5.5) at UCF: The Wildcats might be the worst team in the Big 12. The Knights weren’t good either. But they have played hard the last two weeks. I see them winning this game at home. Lean: UCF.

Louisville (+11) at Clemson: The Tigers have easily reached that number in every game since the season opener. Lean: Clemson.

USC (-2.5) at Washington: Lincoln Riley’s team hasn’t performed well in away games against traditional Big Ten teams. That shouldn’t hurt the Trojans here as they head north to a familiar away game in Washington. Lean: USC.

UCLA (+7.5) at Nebraska: The Bruins don’t have a lot of wins, but they have a lot of coverage. Lean: UCLA.